(message to the scope mods - I know there’s a lot of threads right on the news & rumour onslaught from the media for the past 6 months (those of us who have been following things closely have had their MH totally trashed as a result and even well known disability journalists and activists on social media are reminding online time outs for health reasons) however the official ‘facts’ and ‘political processes on gov policy are getting somewhat buried on other threads so after doing a lot of reading up I thought I’d post. I hope mods will see the intent of this separate thread and not merge with a master thread or at least not straight away)
Also I will not be posting any media articles (unless they have/are the original source of confirmed direct quotes from named gov ministers and if possible include a video link) and will only post announcements from gov sources - I hope that gets respected
(I may beliefly mention yesterdays itv story but not anything to do with the content bullet points
so where are we as of Thursday 8th March 2025:
In brief this labour government has made no official announcements on welfare reform as of yet (they’ve just confirmed its on the agenda but given no major details)
(Though the juries out on whether mps/civil servants are behind the avalanche of rumours and negative opinion pieces by newspapers and channel - presumably (the common theory going around - not proven fact) the gov is trying to control the narrative & persuade the nation that reducing welfare & number of ppl out of work is in the countries best interest (I won’t type the gov ‘strategy’ in achieving this consensus) - the only thing that’s certain is these media stories have had an ongoing negative affect on disabled ppl mental well-being aid I mentioned before)
in theory the disabled community is waiting for 2 separate official gov announcements:
- First official gov announcement (introduction of new gov policy ‘ideas’ in terms of welfare reforms)
- Second Official gov announcement (confirmation that welfare reforms in their finalised form will be made law and a date given to when this official happens)
now we have not as yet had any official gov announcement introducing welfare reform policy details (aka what the gov would like to implement in an ideal world where objections & challenges don’t exist) but we are 95%+ sure that the spring statement from the treasury (27th March) and the upcoming launch of the disability green paper (almost certainly within the next 18 days) will act as the (1st) official gov announcement the community has been waiting upon (disabled community can’t actually take any action until they they get ‘corporeal’ details on dwp initial (1st draft) plans) - I’ll call this the pencilled in stage (aka plans can be subjected to change)
The official 2nd gov announcement is at least weeks after the above announcement and at most many years off and whatever welform reform details are decided on (via government bills and legislation, consultations, focus groups certainly but there are other things that could influence any welfare reforms final form which I’ll go into later) but this is the point when welfare reforms in their final form are penned in, rubber stamped and we reach the date it all becomes law and implemented
Between these 2 announcements as I said above will be a time gap of anywhere from many weeks to many months (I don’t think reeves will need legislation to freeze benefit award amounts and not increase them with yearly inflation - she didn’t have to do so with the upcoming lha housing benefit freeze - however the other rumours would almost certainly need legislation……….however with a 150 odd majority I imagine bills will progress faster than the previous Tory gov - note this is my own educated guess rather than fact I can 100% prove)
This time gap will be the best opportunity to water down or change labour/dwp plans before being officially implemented (and post royal assent changes become a much more time consuming uphill struggle) - the best strategy is always prevention!
Things that could have an impact on the details of any welfare reform during this ‘time gap’ can include but not be solely exclusive of:
- mp/backbencher rebellion on policy (esp embarrassing for gov if ministers speak out
- Large scale public backlash
- Public protests/campaigns against prospective policy (media/disability charities & organisations/mp backing can make or break this strategy)
- Legal challenges/class action suits against dwp security of state/government (most likely from human rights groups or disability activist organisations) - I’ll talk about this more in a future post (I’m not sure that tribunals/upper tribunals can come into play before a policy is implemented)
now in terms of predicting the time gap between initial announcement (1st draft policy) and implemented final draft legislation the fact is it is a ‘how long is a piece of string’ situation
A few on this forum have pointed out definitions of white papers versus green papers - “Green Papers gather feedback on changes to policy whilst White Papers outline legislative proposals or draft Bills” so the upcoming disability green paper marks the start of a process with many stages that can’t be done overnight. However one point that no one’s mentioned is “A 'green paper' is often, but not always, followed by a 'white paper' on the same subject as the ideas are firmed up.”
(Easy read version here -
https://www.mencap.org.uk/easyread/what-white-paper
- to summarise policy changes and alterations that require green/white papers often take a long time beginning to end, potentially years) - just a note, we did already have a ‘get Britain working’ white paper last year so it’s possible that the gov may be able to update some uc claimant commitments straight away…….however in terms of award amounts and tightening of criteria I’m 99% sure gov can’t implement those changes before the start of the next financial year in April and it will almost certainly go under some form of time consuming parliamentary scrutiny.
However (and this is based on personal observations rather than official confirmation) the flipside is that labour has a max of 4yr4mths of their first term in charge with no guarantees of a second term, we all know the uk is in a financial mess with new black holes appearing regularly and Rachel reeves is desperate to ‘balance the books’. Reeves will want to avoid public backlash and also keep city figures happy (and considering the media onslaught of negative welfare & disability pieces the last few month my personal educated guess is reeves has decided that redirecting some welfare money will have the least ‘political consequence’ to labour. The thing is reeves does not have years to get significant savings (£3-6billion by the end of this Parliament in 2029 going by what I’ve read - we should get a treasury doc with actual figures on the 27th) - she needs policy/legislation to pass asap and lucky for her she has a 150 majority (on paper) to speed things along.
With all this in mind I think that reeves and Kendall will want any required legislation completed by the start of the 2026/27 financial year in April - imo this is more than possible if they encounter no meaningful challenges from mps, media or legally
Hence it’s of upmost importance that every disabled person finds a way to be proactive in watering down/binning & changing any policy/bill officially introduced & announced by reeves on the 27th spring statement or the disability green paper that is realised in the next 18 days
apologies for length
