Triple lock speculation

leeCal

This from Sky news
’

Benefits increase - inflation vs earnings

A Government U-turn on a commitment to increase benefits in line with inflation would lead to disabled people "starving and freezing in their own homes", a charity has warned.

There has been speculation that benefits may instead be increased in line with earnings.

James Taylor, director of strategy at disability equality charity Scope, said: "Refusing to increase benefits in line with the true inflation rate would show an utter disdain towards people who need this support.

"The government must stick to its promise to increase benefits in line with inflation, and provide much more direct financial support now to disabled people at the sharp end of this crisis."

‘

Researching I find Ft Advisor reporting:

‘Total wage growth of 5.5 per cent (including bonuses) has been reported for May to July 2022, locking in the earnings element of the state pension triple lock.’

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2022/09/13/wage-growth-of-5-5-locks-in-earnings-element-of-triple-lock/

Just speculation or is it all a leak to prepare us for this.

SueHeath

Hi @leeCal there was something on last night  BBC 10 news as well - i didn't clock it all tho x

daresbury1978

Sadly, and extremely worryingly, there does seem to be a real possibility that Liz Truss's current refusal to back track regarding  her and Kwasi Kwarteng's disastrous "mini/maxi" budget last week and the consequent global market reactions to it could well lead to the situation whereby state benefits do NOT  get raised in line with inflation! (Peston on TV last evening). I like to watch the political discussions offered during the Saturday morning TV programme "DATELINE LONDON" which should have a good deal of helpful comment on offer this coming Saturday. I recommend your watching it! (BBC News Channel from 11.30 am).

Cartini

I said earlier this year (not on here, but to a friend) that if inflation is high in September (the point at which the increase in pensions and benefits is defined against), the government will look at another method of increasing benefits.

Historically they used RPI for increases (12.3% in August), but RPI being slightly higher than CPI was too much for the goverment, so they then aligned increases to CPI (from 2011 onwards I believe).  Now CPI is too much for the government (9.9% in August), they`ll look for another index to set pension / benefit increases against.

I`d like to say "bl..dy Tories are at it again", but I can`t because Labour and the Conservatives are as bad as each other.

daresbury1978

The Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ede Davey has a disabled son and my hope is that as a consequence he might be more inclined to promote policies that support disabled people. What do you think?

woodbine

The previous chancellor committed in the budget last November that pensions would once again use the triple lock, having abandoned it for one year, as for benefits we will have to wait and see but I really doubt they will increase by 10/11 %  next April.

leeCal

The next CPI figure is due for release by the ONS on the 19th October 2022, whether it will be used or not as others have said is yet to be seen. Unfortunately we now have a new chancellor and a prime minister who is happy to pretend to us all that the recent turbulence in the bond market and potential effect on mortgage rates is all down to global influences rather than her inept mini budget last week!

 If they can do these things what else are they capable of. 

calcotti

leeCal said:

Researching I find Ft Advisor reporting:

‘Total wage growth of 5.5 per cent (including bonuses) has been reported for May to July 2022, locking in the earnings element of the state pension triple lock.’

.Under the triple lock state increases each year in line with whichever of which is highest: CPI, average wage increase or 2.5%. Therefore it is clear that if the triple lock is applied it will be CPI that applies.

daresbury1978 said:

The Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ede Davey has a disabled son and my hope is that as a consequence he might be more inclined to promote policies that support disabled people. What do you think?

Regardless of what happens more generally to benefits I think disability benefits such as PIP to be increased in line with CPI. That certainly happened when Osborne froze means tested benefits previously.