Do you think the country will be back to normal by the summer

Tree1

Caz_Alumni

Good question @Tree1! 

I think there's still so much hanging the balance that I wouldn't like to place bets on the country being back to 'normal' by the summer, or indeed anytime soon.

And, of course, it all depends on what we each define as 'normal'?

Tree1

I totally agree with you on the poll

Welshjayne2021

No

I think it will be a couple of years before we see any sort of normality.  I feel people will be apprehensive about getting back to what they were used to do before Covid 19.  There is still too much uncertainty.  We will have to play it by ear for some time yet.

leeCal

No

I agree, I don’t think we’ll be back to normal by next summer either. The virus is global after all.

lisathomas50

No

I think it will be five years or more before we see fewer cases and when the virus runs its course and gets to weak to do anymore serious harm 

mikehughescq

Three to five years but realistically this is now the age of the pandemic. This is just the first.

deb74

No

I am not holding my breath about things getting back to normal any time soon. Some experts have said it will never go away completely and just like flu and we will ail have to have boosters every year. 

MarkM88

Personally I wouldn’t imagine everyone getting a booster every year. It would take too long and many resources. I think it would be more like the flu jab and offered to only specific groups. 

Edited - I should be more specific and say, the flu jab is offered free to specific groups! 

mikehughescq

Er, the flu jab is available to the whole population. It’s just free to different priority groups each year. There’s little to zero point in any vaccine if it’s not available for everyone. 

MarkM88

I think you knew what I meant though. 

mikehughescq

The plan is very clearly for boosters for all each year. No idea how anyone would conclude differently. Sure there will be priority groups but the plan remains for all. 

MarkM88

Plans change as well you know. 

I expressed my opinion on what will happen. 

Cher_Inactive

No

Plans do change you're right @MarkN88 I did a little reading about this and the British Medical Journal published this quote from Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair of the Vaccine Advisory Committee just recently:

“I suspect it’s going to be likely that we’re going to require an annual boost for a while,” he said. “It just depends on the length of duration of protection. The virus mutates, [but it] probably doesn’t mutate as much or as quickly as the influenza virus, so it’s very difficult to predict whether this is going to be an annual vaccine or for how many years.
“But I certainly think it’s going to be a booster shot this year.”

So I imagine it's a case of monitoring the efficacy of vaccines and the covid stats as we proceed into future years.

Back to the OP's question, I can barely remember what normal was like now unfortunately.  And I agree with @Caz_Scope, how do we define it?!  I think we'll be in a period of flux for a good year or so yet but hopefully, the worst is over now.

woodbine

No

I don't see a return to normal by the summer, I know that my daughter has been told they will continue to work from home until late September, sadly there is so much that can go wrong between now and June, and of course the big question will be what is the new normal?

mikehughescq

As it stands there’s zero evidence that any vaccine provides immunity beyond 8 months at most. Many people genuinely don’t understand that the vaccine does not prevent C19 and that social distancing and masks will be the new normal. If not then the r rate soars again and may do so even with all these things in place.

You also have to remember that the reason there’s no cure is that vaccines were trusted to private companies whose main interest is profit. They simply wouldn’t have produced any vaccine if it was about a cure and absolutely wouldn’t even have taken part of there was no prospect of ongoing profit via boosters. 

So, yeah, things change but there are scientific and profit related reasons for why boosters will be with us for years on this.

lisathomas50

No

All I can say is that we will just have to see personally I think k we will be back in lockdown by June  sorry just my opinion x

mikehughescq

I think it’ll take a little longer Lisa if only because they’re desperate; know it’s coming and want people to get a holiday first even though that will actually make it worse.

lisathomas50

No

Scientists think we will be in the third wave by May Mike  they are still testing to see if the vacination will cover all variants  no one has ever been immune to the flu no one has built up an immunity  against the common cold all these are types of corona virus 

Only time will tell but I think before the hight of the summer we will be back in lockdown to much is being done to soon in my opinion 

Only way to keep safe is mask distance wash hands  I value your opinion though Mike  I personally  belive that the corona virus will run its 4 year course and weaken its self to the point where a yearly vacine like the flu will be done a pandemic usually runs its course in roughly 4 years 

I dont think enough is known about the corona virus yet to know fully how it runs I belive it will be something we will be liveing with for years to come and I belive wearing masks and distancing and hand washing / sanatiser  will also be the new norm but as I say only time will tell 

mikehughescq

Washing hands is increasingly irrelevant. Sensible anyway but we now know it was largely irrelevant to combatting an airborne virus. Important to remember that masks ate not to protect you but to protect others. That message seems to have been lost too. 

Not sure where your 4 years is coming from. Spanish Flu was months but the impact was still being felt up to 1968. AIDS is still with us 40 years later and has done anything but run its course. 

One of the big misunderstandings on C19 so that it will eventually weaken and will do so fairly quickly, That would be true if we’d aimed for eradication and closed borders but we didn’t. The variants which have emerged have done so precisely because we still have this stupid belief in herd immunity. The variants have largely emerged from countries which went for herd immunity and let the thing run rampant by acting too slowly or not at all eg Brazil or South Africa. 

Actually we know loads about corona viruses but private companies have no financial incentive to find a cure when they charge for it year on year and C19 operates very differently to flu or the common cold. I personally think the Bradykinin hypothesis is likely to throw up the best outcomes but we’ll see. 

As regards the return of lockdowns i hear what you’re saying but the government has a years worth of history of acting slowly and we now know roughly how extra many people died in consequence. The knowledge of that has yet to serve to speed them up so I think there’s several forces at work:

1 - Tory grandees will fight tooth and nail against anything which looks like a step backwards.
2 - Sunak wants to be PM. It’ll never happen if the economy doesn’t reopen soon so he’s also going to resist the data and the science.
3 - they have acted too slowly every step of the way.
4 - they know people will accept another lockdown more if we have a Summer out and then lockdown in Autumn when the nights grow darker etc.

lisathomas50

No

Sorry Mike what I meant about running its course is where it's at it's strongest which it could be at it's strongest for 4 years 

I dont belive in herd immunity  if that was the case they wouldnt need an annual vacination for the flu and people still get the flu even if they are vaccinated there will always be epidemics or pandemics  looking at statistics aids has caused more deaths than covid 19  

As you say Mike aids is still here there are lots of other illness that has caused more deaths than corona virus  I would expect aids to be higher as that is a bodily contact disease want for  a better word 

As you say Mike a mask is to prevent you passing it to someone else  corona virus attacks the vital organs and cells and breaks down the immune system I have had an antibody test done and  I havent built up any antibodies against the corona virus even though I have  had it more than once  I have lupus I havent had a flu vacination because my dr said there would be no point as my body would reject it and cause my body to fight against its self 

The point someone made on the corona virus group wales was what long term affects does the vaccination  have on the body I don't know if that is or will become an issue only time will tell I suppose 

fluffycat

No

Once pubs open many people will lose their heads and gord knows what will happen!

With a hint of lockdown last Spring, nighttime places were heaving, so it had to be lockdown (to be strict) though it spilled out to parks with huge gatherings. (Takeaway alcohol was creating huge gatherings as well)

Lately people are partying on the street and huge swathes of empty cans n bottles dotted about. 

deb74

No

Unfortunately I think @lisathomas50 is right. Not sure how soon we will be back in lockdown but I don't think it will be long. Relaxing the rules too soon again will cause more deaths as it has done each time we have come out of lockdown. @fluffycat is right about the gatherings. This has been happening a lot in Cardiff. There is always going to ignorant (Removed by moderator, word may cause offence) who don't care about other people and what damage they cause. As for the rubbish it is awful. The one thing I have noticed lately though is all the masks that have been dumped everywhere.

mikehughescq

lisathomas50 said:

I dont belive in herd immunity  if that was the case they wouldnt need an annual vacination for the flu and people still get the flu even if they are vaccinated there will always be epidemics or pandemics  looking at statistics aids has caused more deaths than covid 19  

...

The point someone made on the corona virus group wales was what long term affects does the vaccination  have on the body I don't know if that is or will become an issue only time will tell I suppose 

I think this may be a misunderstanding of herd immunity. Herd immunity isn’t necessarily about total eradication. It’s about getting the r rate well below one by reducing severity. The reason we still need an annual vaccination for flu is partly because the numbers who take part are far below what would be needed for herd immunity. However, even if there was 95% take-up of the flu jab we’d still need an annual jab because of the travel of variants. The need for a booster does not in itself suggest herd immunity doesn’t work. 

The reintroduction of international travel poses a risk of a flu epidemic as much as the next wave of C19 because it will once again allow the migration of flu variants from south to north. 

I think the second point about long term impacts is the sort of question people pose when all rationality has gone out the window. 

How long is “long term”? Is it 1 year, 5 years, a decade? Most vaccines go through 4 years of testing and that’s deemed long enough to establish most impacts. Nothing however is perfect. Even then longer term impacts could develop. To the best of my knowledge we’ve never yet delayed longer than 4 years unless issues were already showing. With vaccines set loose after a year then yes there may be some concerns but the testing will still catch most and compared to the risks from C19 and post viral long C19 the long term risks are negligible to nil. 

Some people want the risk from everything to literally be nil but life and science doesn’t work like that.

lisathomas50

No

I saw today Mike that the scientists are worried about a couple of the variants cant remember the three numbers that were involved I think personally there is a long way to go yet  

Today in wales there has been no new deaths and only 50 new cases I am holding my judgement and see where we are in 4 weeks time now things are opening up again 

lisathomas50

No

If I am remembering it correctly Mike havent we been below one in the R rate and went back up 

mikehughescq

Repeatedly. However, whilst the national r number is important local ones are critical. Hot spots can’t be ignored although bravo the government for trying.   

lisathomas50

No

Where I live was on local lockdown not long after we came out the first lockdown  then we had the Welsh firebreak then not long after thst another lockdown I would hope they had learn't  from all that  but we will see within the next four weeks where we are 

fluffycat

No

The scenes in London Soho were manic. (Other places too on the news)
Hopefully the vaccine takes up slack though probably unvaccinated youngsters out on the razzle. 

mikehughescq

lisathomas50 said:

Mike have you seen the news about the vacine and what's in it 

Nope. Been working. 

lisathomas50

No

@fluffycat only time will tell 

mikehughescq

lisathomas50 said:

Dr  Mike Yeadon online it is saying about the first vacination 

No idea what he’s saying @lisathomas50 but he’s well known on the lunatic fringe she to be honest I would disregard pretty much everything he says.

chiarieds

Information about the different vaccines (& what's in them) is available on the Government's website See: https://www.gov.uk/health-and-social-care/pharmacy  scrolling down to 'News and communications' for info on the AstraZeneca, Pfizer & Moderna vaccines.

Michael Yeadon, a former vice-president of Pfizer, is debunked in this report:

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-vaccines-skeptic/ 

I hope Scope continue to ensure correct info is given at all times in reference to the Covid-19 vaccines.

lisathomas50

No

@chiarieds I wanted Mike's opinion I didn't disclose exactly what was being said I thought the same as Mike when I saw it  as I had already said to Mike what was being said on the Welsh corona virus group then what I said to Mike came up thats all I wasn't giving information I was asking 

lisathomas50

No

I think Mike alot of people have gone like that since it all started but its like everything else only time will tell 

mikehughescq

chiarieds said:

Information about the different vaccines (& what's in them) is available on the Government's website See: https://www.gov.uk/health-and-social-care/pharmacy  scrolling down to 'News and communications' for info on the AstraZeneca, Pfizer & Moderna vaccines.

Michael Yeadon, a former vice-president of Pfizer, is debunked in this report:

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-vaccines-skeptic/ 

I hope Scope continue to ensure correct info is given at all times in reference to the Covid-19 vaccines.

I would endorse all of this really. It’s very much not a case of “only time will tell” @lisathomas50. The man is demonstrably wrong and no-one should be afraid of saying that and calling out people who believe otherwise. 

At this point people tend to cry out about being entitled to their opinion. Well yes, but you’re not “entitled” to be stupid in the face of demonstrable, replicable science which proves that your opinion is wrong. He is wrong so let’s just say that and move on. 

Science is only right until it’s proved wrong but people like him ignore the fact that science has already shown that they’re wrong. 

Actually, people like him are not just wrong. They are dangerously wrong. 

chiarieds

Apologies for posting. I didn't say you were giving info, nor did I even tag you. My only concern is that I don't want people to lose confidence in the Covid-19 vaccines, especially due to someone like Michael Yeadon, whom you drew attention to.

lisathomas50

No

@chiarieds apologies  mike whst I meant in only time will tell wasn't specifically about Mike Yeadon I should of worded it properly I meant all of what's happening 

Already in wales today tuesday cases have risen to 69 new cases  up from 50 cases on Monday today Tuesday 2 deaths in wales  up from no deaths on Monday  so apologies  for my wording Mike 

Thats why I asked  sorry Mike 

Cher_Inactive

No

@lisathomas50 I've added an advisory note to some of your posts above, linking to official sources relating to the covid vaccines.  This is to avoid people searching Mike Yeadon and being unnecessarily alarmed by his unproven allegations.

Although I know there was no ill-intent, please be mindful to not draw attention to non evidence-based assertions that could deter people from having the vaccine.  As the majority of our members our disabled, and particularly vulnerable to covid-19, it's important people are informed by only that which is factually correct.  Thank you.

lisathomas50

No

@Cher_Scope sorry you can remove the post if you want I was just trying to get clarification from Mike as I knew he would know 

mikehughescq

Cher_Scope said:

This is to avoid people searching Mike Yeadon and being unnecessarily alarmed by his unproven allegations.

With all due respect I find statements like this cowardly and they contribute to the idea that any opinion can be presented as fact even when it patently isn’t. He hasn’t made “unproven allegations”. He’s made a series of allegations and each one can and has been refuted in full. 

I’m no fan of Wikipedia but try reading this and then tell anyone here he’s made “unproven allegations”. That’s not what he’s done at all. Every allegation of his is totally proven... as incorrect.

Oxonlady

Hi everyone, the original question for this particular thread was "do you think we'll all be back to normal by the summer?
The bulk of the conversation is now arguments about the vaccine. 
I just wanted to say, I can't even remember what it's like to have a "normal" life. I've been housebound for around seven years now, mostly due to deteriorating health but also because Social Services have reduced my hours by so much that there's no time for my carer for escort me even on a weekly outing. So for me, the "lockdown" will continue. It's like a prison sentence. I'm trying my best to stay sane and strong but I can't really see any light at the end of the tunnel... Vaccine or no vaccine... 

Cher_Inactive

No

lisathomas50 said:

@Cher_Scope sorry you can remove the post if you want I was just trying to get clarification from Mike as I knew he would know 

Hi @lisathomas50 - just to clarify, do you want the posts to be deleted? If you can confirm, I'll action that asap.

lisathomas50

No

Yes you can delete the posts  I was just getting clarification from Mike thats all its all over another forum I am on thats why I only mentioned his name and not all the details didn't mean any harm 

Cher_Inactive

No

Hi @lisathomas50 As you've confirmed you want the posts deleting, I'll action that now.  I appreciate you didn't mean any harm too.  As mentioned on another thread, I've sent you an email if you want to give that a quick read and get back to me.  Thank you. 

mikehughescq

lisathomas50 said:

Yes you can delete the posts  I was just getting clarification from Mike thats all its all over another forum I am on thats why I only mentioned his name and not all the details didn't mean any harm 

I’d get off that forum. Man is nothing but a walking talking mine of deliberate disinformation. 

fluffycat

No

in passing.......

Very unsettling today huge queues stretching down the road (blocking the pavement) to a food court (both sides ) and no social distancing!!

Bars rammed full and queues at some!!

yes outside but still risky and crazy from quiet last week

woodbine

No

It's perhaps been bad timing that the relaxation of some of the rules in England has coincided in the appearance of that yellow thing in the sky.

fluffycat

No

woodbine said:

It's perhaps been bad timing that the relaxation of some of the rules in England has coincided in the appearance of that yellow thing in the sky.

Wonder if 5 ft snow wld have stopped em lol! 

Just gone from ‘one extreme’ to ‘the other’

Suppose with the surge of folk it’s difficult to calm the tide! (But their actions cld cause harsher measures)

mikehughescq

woodbine said:

It's perhaps been bad timing that the relaxation of some of the rules in England has coincided in the appearance of that yellow thing in the sky.

I’d say it was pretty much timed to be deliberately so.

woodbine

No

The cynic in me would agree Mike.

lisathomas50

No

We have lots of English visitors in wales now been realy busy in seaside places and alot more traffic on the road 

Only problem is once they have had a drink social distancing  and masks are forgotten about 

mikehughescq

Went into Manchester today for the first time in 13 months. It laid waste to the idea that an economic recovery is just around the corner. About 50% of places open and of the ones which were there was much to give the anxious a sense of disquiet. My fave Costa was well organised but the info on what to do was sketchy at best and had to be explained once we’d got to the counter. The counter was totally enclosed and take out was the only option. It’s quiet on the weekend compared to the business trade midweek but compared to an average Saturday morning I’d estimate it was doing about 5% of normal Saturday trade. Even with support from Costa that’s unsustainable. 

Then went to replace my running shoes from Up and Running. Again, no clue as to do on the outside of the shop. Once through the door we found ourselves sharing space with another guy in a mask. It had to be explained that he needed to scan the NHS QRKY code and then sanitise his hands and then move 2m into the shop. We were in there for 15 minutes before anyone offered us a seat in a 2m plus zone marked off with tape. A bizarre thing to do as the shop allowed people to browse and doing so meant encroaching into those 2m zones. No evidence of hand sanitiser being used after handling shoes and nothing going on around sanitising the treadmill which several of us used. Overall, what should have been a 30 minute visit at most was 60. So, 50% operating level at best. Chatted to the manager and he was saying that online sales for running shoes are poor for obvious reasons so whilst they’re alive they are struggling. 

Then off to Waterstones. Absolutely appalled. Barely noticeable and usable hand sanitiser stations each side of the entrance and.. nothing else. Go where you want. Stand next to whomever you want. Handle everything. Hardly surprising that numbers were way down. By 11am I’d expect it to be thriving and..  again maybe 10% of the usual. In this case online sakes are keeping them alive but the lack of info, precautions, markings etc. is clearly dissuading people from flocking back. They were expecting a bumper day. They were quite open about it being disastrous. I won’t be going back for a long time.

lisathomas50

No

I will be sticking to online shopping easier and safer 

mikehughescq

It would appear that more people than I imagined will be doing the same.