Spring Statement Discussion (link to documents here)

I'm glad to hear that. I thought it was four points needed. x

She's just picking on the vunerable for her failing, she won't tax the rich tech giants as Ed Davy said. She dosent want to upset trump

Bad maths and loads of blah…

ever since reading earlier that they’re reassessing people on UC I just feel completely terrified. I haven’t spoken to my doctor at length since august 2023 when they sent me to be assessed for autism and adhd because there’s basically nothing they can do for me. I’m scared to death I’m going to be reassessed soon and have my LCWRA taken away from me even though things aren’t any better than they were 5 years ago when I was last assessed. Last time I had a face to face assessment in 2019 it gave me PTSD that lasted over a year my memory stopped working and I had a nervous breakdown. I’m going to sleep every night with my heart beating out of my chest and waking up the same way, waking up every hour in the night and exhausted all the time. Sleeping 3/4 hours in the day most days. Just sick of all of this just want to be left alone

Does reassessment include New style ESA support group?

Witnessing recent events, it is evident that the Labour government is not on a mission to “reform” but rather to marginalise the most vulnerable and disabled members of society, viewing them as a financial burden. Their actions will have devastating consequences.

From "The I" this afternoon:

There are other approaches that Reeves could take

Opinion

 Ian Dunt

The i Paper columnist

26th March 2025 3:47 PM

Listen

Rachel Reeves's caution could create further problems for her (Photo: Andrew Aitchison/In pictures via Getty Images)

If you listen to her critics, Rachel Reeves is obviously some kind of demon. She delights in robbing disabled people of their dignity. She’s damaged the economy due to her cynical political point scoring. She’s prepared to return us to austerity in order to preserve a discredited fiscal rule.

The reality is entirely different. Reeves is following a cautious approach to the predicament she’s in. Most of her actions are the result of perfectly sensible decisions. But as today’s Spring Statement showed, caution carries its own set of risks. At its worst, it can trap us in a state of economic desolation. And that’s what seems to be happening here.

The situation Reeves finds herself in is not her fault. As the Chancellor delivered the Spring Statement today, the Conservatives were incandescent with rage. They spluttered with indignation. But in fact it was their decisions which brought us to this point.

During austerity, George Osborne chose to ignore the low interest rates available to him – a market basically begging him to borrow – and instead cut departmental spending to the bone, mutilating the British economic landscape.

Then came Brexit, then Liz Truss, then the endlessly unresolved public-sector strikes, the pointless cancellation of HS2, the announcement of unaffordable tax cuts. On and on it went. Vandalism upon vandalism upon vandalism.

This is why the bond markets are so jittery – because Britain has been in an economic malaise for a long time and it is struggling to lift itself out from it. Reeves is responding to that market anxiety by clinging closely to her fiscal rules in a bid to demonstrate determination.

Labour’s position is understandable. But the basic reality is this: it is not being honest with the public.

It was not honest about the need for tax rises during the election. And now it cannot be honest about them in government. Almost everyone can see that they’re inevitable, but it cannot bring itself to say so.

It is not being honest about Donald Trump either. The President’s threats of tariffs are paralysing the world economy and posing specific risks to British industries. His loyalty towards Russia over Ukraine is an existential threat to European security, which demands an urgent levelling-up of the continent’s defence capacity.

Other governments, including Canada and Germany, are speaking openly about what is happening. This has won the Liberal government political support in Canada and the Christian Democrat government economic support in Germany. But Labour feels unable to do likewise.

On the Today programme this morning, the Defence Secretary John Healey told listeners that the economic picture reflected the fact that “the world has changed” but he was unable to say why the world had changed, because that would involve admitting that the US President is a man of chaos and ruin.

These are the two great truths which Reeves cannot say out loud: that Trump has created a crisis and that taxes will have to go up. So instead, she battens down the hatches and hopes for the best.

The Chancellor did just enough to stay within her fiscal rules while moving a few small pieces around the board. Spending cuts got Reeves to the point where the borrowing rule was met by £9.9bn in 2029-30 – precisely the same amount as she proposed in last autumn’s Budget.

A couple of billion was taken from the aid budget to give to defence. Growth forecasts for 2026-29 were revised up, but it was still depressing – at no point did the Office for Budget Responsibility expect it to go above 2 per cent before the end of the decade.

Reeves is basically just cracking on with the existing policy, then hoping that Labour’s pro-growth policies, reduced inflation and the expected lowering of the interest rate will help bring about a cyclical swing toward growth.

This could very well happen. But equally, her caution could create further problems for her. Today’s statement saw her finding little bits of spending here and there to restore her headroom.

Another completely bog-standard revision in economic expectations could easily wipe away that headroom and force her to go through the whole godforsaken pantomime all over again. How does that reassure the markets?

Even her reticence over tax rises is dangerous. The expectation of their coming rise is so widespread that consumers may well spend the summer restraining spending out of uncertainty about what’ll be in the autumn Budget.

There are other approaches that Labour could take.

It could be honest: honest about Trump and honest about taxes. It could state clearly that Europe is now alone, without American support. We therefore have to rearm at a much faster pace than we were previously willing to contemplate. This means we must raise taxes as part of a patriotic effort in which everyone is expected to do their part.

This response would require a much closer relationship with Europe than Labour is prepared to admit. Moving closer to the EU would boost our trading prospects, our growth, our military procurement, our domestic producers and our shared defence. It would mean encouraging the American knowledge base to come to the UK – speaking directly to the experts currently being targeted by Elon Musk in US universities and public bodies and telling them to move to Britain.

In short, it means embracing the upsides of this crisis. But we can only do that once we’re honest about the fact that it is a crisis and why it is happening.

It’s not Labour’s fault that we’re here. But it will be Labour’s fault if it fails to grasp the opportunities currently being presented to it. Caution carries its own set of risks. And they can be far more debilitating than those which come from excess ambition.