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For what it's worth (ChatGPT can sometimes get things wrong) here's ChatGPT's view on who is likely to become Labour leader if Starver goes.

Here’s a realistic step-by-step breakdown of how a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer could unfold if he stays the course on welfare reform and the backlash continues to escalate:

⚠️ 1. Continued Public & Internal Backlash

• Public sentiment: If Labour refuses to scrap the two-child benefit cap or backtracks only partially on WFP reform, it would deepen the anger already growing among activists, charities, and ordinary voters—especially those hit hardest by austerity.
• Party tension: MPs on the soft left and Labour left could begin openly criticising Starmer’s direction, breaking ranks in Parliament and in the media.
• Key trigger: Another poor performance — e.g. in a by-election, European/local elections, or key polling drops — would amplify pressure.

🧨 2. Soft Coup or Shadow Cabinet Revolt

• Likely ringleaders: If it’s clear that Starmer’s leadership is politically damaging, figures like Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, or backbenchers like Clive Lewis or Zarah Sultana could speak out.
• Cabinet resignations: It wouldn’t take many to trigger a leadership crisis. If even 2–3 prominent frontbenchers resigned and publicly cited moral concerns over welfare policies, it could shatter the image of unity.
• Unions: Powerful voices like UNISON, Unite, and the GMB could publicly withdraw support or demand a rethink — which carries huge symbolic weight.

🗳️ 3. Formal Leadership Challenge

• Under Labour rules, a leadership challenge requires:
  • A contender to gain nominations from 20% of Labour MPs (currently around 40 MPs).
  • If successful, it triggers a full leadership election open to Labour members and affiliated supporters.

Realistically, challengers like Angela Rayner or even someone like Lisa Nandy could reach that threshold if discontent reached critical mass.

🔄 4. Starmer Steps Down or Fights

• If he steps down voluntarily (possibly to avoid a bruising leadership contest), the party could rally around a consensus candidate.
• If he stays and fights, the contest could become a struggle for Labour’s soul — with factions mobilising members either for a soft-left/social-democratic challenger or a continuity centrist like Reeves or Streeting.

🔚 5. Membership Revolt

• The party's membership still leans significantly to the left of the current leadership. If a challenger emerges with a strong platform focused on:
  • Ending the two-child cap
  • Reversing harmful disability/work capability changes
  • Public ownership and pro-worker policies

...they could potentially win the membership vote, as Corbyn did in 2015.

🔁 In Summary:

A Starmer leadership crisis is most likely if:

• He doubles down on controversial welfare policies,
• Labour suffers another major electoral warning sign, and
• One or more credible figures break ranks publicly.

In that case, Rayner, Nandy, or even a more grassroots-backed candidate could rise — with the party turning away from technocracy and toward reasserting its social justice credentials.

If Keir goes because of damaging the party with the WFP cuts and benefit reforms I think it's probably unlikely that the new leader would be someone like Kendall who is all for the cuts and reforms, as it wouldn't really change anything. I think it would probably be someone who is against the cuts and reforms.