Green Paper Related Discussions
Comments
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Hi Catherine
Are you confident now that we will win this, with the numbers ?
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just seen this in the sun
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As things stand It's not looking good for Starmer, and now it's rumoured in The Sun Tories are planning to voye against welfare cuts too, to oust him. Here's some good news for a change;
Following the 2024 UK general election, the composition of the House of Commons is as follows:
- Labour: 412 seats
- Conservatives: 121 seats
- Liberal Democrats: 72 seats
- Scottish National Party (SNP): 9 seats
- Reform UK: 5 seats
- Green Party: 4 seats
- Plaid Cymru: 4 seats
- Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 5 seats
- Sinn Féin: 7 seats (note: Sinn Féin MPs traditionally abstain from taking their seats)
- Others/Independents: 11 seatsCompass+8The Guardian+8BBC+8votesmatter.org.uk+5BBC+5BBC Feeds+5votesmatter.org.uk+1BBC+1
This totals 650 seats in the House of Commons.
In your scenario, if 170 MPs either abstain or vote against welfare changes, and the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens also vote against them, the vote breakdown would be:
- Against the welfare changes:
- Conservatives: 121
- Liberal Democrats: 72
- Greens: 4
- Labour MPs voting against or abstaining: 170
- Total opposing or abstaining: 367 MPs
- Supporting the welfare changes:
- Remaining Labour MPs: 412 total - 170 = 242
- Assuming no support from other parties, the total in favor would be 242 MPs
With 367 MPs opposing or abstaining and only 242 supporting, the welfare changes would not pass.
Therefore, under these conditions, Labour would lose the vote on welfare changes.
Sources
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@WhatThe - whilst I can agree with one of your previous comments, but only in part (who has 'demanded' proof with links? I might have, I hoped, politely asked, that's all, & the better to understand - links help, & then a member will draw their own conclusion - so that comment of yours, as you're completely aware, is untrue).
I do however agree that republishing propaganda may contribute to the 'mental torture' that some members might be putting themselves through. Everyone is trying to help tho, & will do so in their own way. Sharing what they've read in the media isn't trying to 'misinform' anyone else, & many members try to counter misinformation anyway.
I've got very real concerns about misinformation spreading to the forum, & have done for years, but if you mistrust everyone & every source, as I hope to only use those I find are verifiable, then you & I are never going to agree on that one.
I don't doubt you that previous reforms have gradually led to where we are today, but members are trying to concentrate on this Green Paper, as yes, there was comparitively 'much less communication by social media in 2012 & 2016'; some members may not even have been using the internet all those years ago.
As to your 2nd comment, I think the idea was not to take a GP's 'power' away over 'fit' notes, rather acknowledging that this takes time out of a GP's day helping their patients with their medical problems, that it could be seen as a conflict of interest, & that other Healthcare Professionals might be in a better position to evaluate could a person return to work with sometimes reasonable adjustments, for example?
And 'no' the 'authority' to give out a fit note was not 'shared with any old 'health professional' you've never met,' rather the opposite, as you needed to be their patient too. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that other Healthcare Professionals have only been able to write 'fit' notes since April 2024 (should they wish) as I remember mentioning this on the forum. But don't take my word for it:
& a comment from May 2024:
but yes, this is certainly thinking about getting people back into work, tho it's not relevant for PIP which is a disability benefit.
I'm unsure how a WCA could be initiated without a fit note?
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Even if Reform were to vote in favour of cuts they would still be defeated.
✅ In favour of welfare changes:
- Labour loyalists: 412 - 170 = 242
- Reform UK: 5
➡ Total in favour: 242 + 5 = 247 MPs
🧮 Final Tally:
- For: 247
- Against/Abstain: ~390
🔴 Result: Welfare changes would still fail.
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i'd never thought we'd see the day that we'd get the Tories as allies.
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I read that but what I find confusing is in the article it says they’re voting against it as it’s not going far enough, yet I’m sure I heard the Tory’s said it was cruel . Mind you it’s the sun so maybe they added their little bit to it .
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yes I saw that too
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What I would like to know is what can happen out of the two out comes ?
It gets rejected ?What is the next step for the government will they try again?
or it passes ?Would there be legal challenges ?
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chiarieds, the PM in both your links is Rishi Sunak.
"And 'no' the 'authority' to give out a fit note was not 'shared with any old 'health professional' you've never met"
But it was!! The reforms I mentioned to Med 3 certification were enacted in 2016 and implemented from April 2017 (I think). DWP's subsequent plans will remove GPs entirely from the equation - the ones RS was talking about.
"I don't doubt you that previous reforms have gradually led to where we are today, but members are trying to concentrate on this Green Paper,"
It is gobbledegook without reference to existing rules and those rules should not have passed! There's no gradual. We've been conned but not by this PM.
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The change is about efficiency and appropriateness,
not about diminishing the GP’s role.That is exactly what was intended. What had served benefits claimants for 20 years was changed through the Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016. There was plenty of concern from GP's and the Local Government Association (LGA) at the time.
There is zero appropriateness at DWP where claimants' health is concerned.
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The user and all related content has been deleted.0
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The user and all related content has been deleted.4
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It is this PM that's hellbent on supporting the enactment of the proposed legislation, whether or not those changes are only possible because of what was done 10 years ago. (Just so you don't accidentally paint him as any better than his predecessors.)
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Exactly what I think . IMO it doesn’t matter what was put in place by previous PMs or who’s behind starmer . He’s PM the buck stops with him . The only moral crusade he has is one against the disabled. How are cuts needed to bring the welfare bill down when there’s no mention of getting the fit job seekers work and they’re thinking of scrapping the two child limit and reinstating the WFA ( which I agree with) which cancels out any savings from pip cuts .
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the omission of any impact statements tells you everything you need to know about Starmer and his proposed cuts !
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Hi Squirrel 🐿️
I was really wiped out but at least I don't wake up in pain. It's really sad that you have to put up with fibromyalgia too. 😞
I'm also sad to hear that you are amongst the few with the enhanced DL rate who doesn't have 4 points in any one question. You have such a high level of needs and therefore deserve a high level of support, not to have it all taken off you completely. 😤
I do hope that this situation will improve for you, hopefully by a lot and for the sake of the rest of us who are going to lose out too.
I think that MPs have come to understand a great deal about our situation as there has been such a huge outcry by us, our DPOs, charities etc.I don't think that the Labour leadership expected this much opposition, in such a short time which has caused MPs to have become a lot more aware of how the impact of the cuts will affect us before the vote.
Ministers were obviously hoping it would not be until afterwards, long afterwards as it will take another 4 months to get all the impact assessments together for MPs to see.
I believe that we can have more confidence in MPs than you think. 😊
As for Kendall and Co, I think we can expect every sort of skullduggery from them.
I'm only speculating but I do think that if they push up one lot of scoring for standard rate, in their mind, I don't think that they would settle at having one rate, they would want to put up the points for the enhanced rate too.
I think that they want to try to trick MPs into accepting a different scenario for us that sounds better to begin with but will end up being just as devastating for us in reality.
MPs look to be onto them them though, with refusing to deal with the leaderships "tweaks." as they call them. I think that the MPs know that ministers are trying to pull the wool over their eyes and are trying to push the vote through too quickly.
That's why they are trying to get them to slow down so MPs can consider these cuts properly and they insist that we must get a proper say on all points of the proposals.
I've realised myself that just because large numbers of MPs are abstaining on the vote, instead of voting against, it doesn't mean that this isn't a major government revolt against the leadership and a great threat to Labour party unity. It is, which surprised me too!
You're right in saying this really isn't about the small amount of money that is needed for us out of this country's vast budget every year. Right wing MPs seem obsessed with doing everything they possibly can large corporations, banks and businesses making obscene amounts of money and looking after the interests of the already rich.
This is powered by having as many people as possible working to make them as much profit as possible, at any one time.
This is why we are suffering, as the elderly (WFA) and children (Child Benefit Cap) are having to do, quite unnecessarily. 😡 If you cannot work, or are too young, or old to work then you are considered an expendable burden. Which is appalling, I know. 😞
That's also why there is no regard for the fact that most of us have worked in the past, the elderly have done so too, or that children are the workers of the future.
Because of this pathological hated, and the fact that we are an obstacle to their parliamentary ambitions too, especially in the case of Starmer and Co, is why we all believe that they are trying to ruin our lives by removing our vital support.
I would say that I think that their ideological hatred of us definitely outstrips whether they will save any money or not. They will know, as well as we do that it will cost the country a lot more to improverish us than it will save in the long run, so I would say that this is about their indefensible, ideology driven attitude and political maneuvering not money.
As Timms has so disgracefully shown us in the last few days. 😡 He should be careful, his actions are not matching his words, demonstrating what their opinion really is of us.
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Absolutely Catherine, haven't they just!! 😡
That's good that you've decided to vote for the Greens too. 👍
If Labour think that we can forgive and forget what they have done to us, I think that they will find that they have another thing coming! 😤
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Redo my calculations???? Well I have done, turns out I was wrong (apologies) but so were you, not 403 as you quoted.
As of June 1, 2025, the Labour Party holds 404 seats in the UK House of Commons. This figure reflects a reduction from the 411 seats secured during the 2024 general election. The decrease is attributed to factors such as resignations, suspensions, and by-election outcomes. Institute for Government
The current composition of the House of Commons is as follows:
- Labour: 404 MPs
- Conservative: 121 MPs
- Liberal Democrat: 72 MPs
- Scottish National Party (SNP): 9 MPs
- Reform UK: 4 MPs
- Green Party: 4 MPs
- Plaid Cymru: 4 MPs
- Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): 5 MPs
- Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP): 2 MPs
- Alliance Party: 1 MP
- Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): 1 MP
- Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV): 1 MP
- Independent: 13 MPs
- Speaker: 1 MP
- Sinn Féin: 7 MPs (who do not take their seats)Parallel ParliamentParallel Parliament+3Reuters+3IPU Parline+3
This distribution confirms Labour's position as the majority party in Parliament.
Sources
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jasminehoop, he's nothing like the PM's of the last 14 years, no!
I wouldn't mind him resigning if it meant targeting the real villains in Parliament - the ones who stitched us up in 2012 and 2015 - now running around like headless chickens trying to sell DWP's 'new' plan for sick and disabled claimants.
Existing rules for incapacity benefits for working-age claimants concern me more than proposals to cut PIP. I think we are muddling the issues presented in this Green Paper. I recommend that members have a read of past Green Papers, White Papers and policy.
There are good reasons for the media to have fallen silent over the 2016 Act. You cannot pin that on Keir Starmer!
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