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At this point, any claims that the bill is set to be designated a money bill are simply unfounded. The process is crystal clear: a bill must complete all its stages in the House of Commons, including second reading, committee stage, report stage and third reading, before the Speaker can decide whether it qualifies as a money bill.

That decision only happens once the Commons has finished with the bill and it is on its way to the Lords. It is not something that gets decided partway through. So anyone claiming otherwise is just engaging in scaremongering and trying to play mind reader with no basis in fact.

The chances of defeat are very real but not guaranteed. The strength of the opposition, the level of support for the amendment, and the unpredictability of Labour rebels all mean the outcome is still very much in the balance. If opposition parties remain unified and those key rebel MPs stick to their guns, there is a credible path to blocking the bill or forcing significant change.

Next week carries both fear and fragile hope. For many, this vote cuts to the heart of daily life support, security, stability. The margin is painfully tight, the consequences profound. Yet even in the uncertainty, I’m holding onto quiet optimism. One thing I do feel certain of, whatever happens, they won’t get everything their own way.